Champions League qualification: Who is most likely to win race and how many spots will Premier League teams have?

The race for Champions League qualification is more competitive than ever with five Premier League teams guaranteed qualification, but who will make the cut?

The race for the top five is tight, with only four points separating Manchester City in third and Aston Villa in seventh following Villa’s 1-0 home win over Fulham on Saturday.

Opta’s supercomputer has run the numbers on each team’s chances, so who do they expect to get over the line?

Premier League winners Liverpool have already guaranteed Champions League football, while Opta put Arsenal’s prospects at 99.9 per cent.

Man City – who have a favourable run-in – now have a 98 per cent chance of making those Champions League spots

Chelsea occupy the fifth and final Champions League qualification spot but have moved level on points with Newcastle following their win over Liverpool on a day when Newcastle drew at Brighton.

Nottingham Forest missed the chance to join them on 63 points after a 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace on Monday Night Football.

Aston Villa‘s prospects of qualifying for the Champions League are now rated at 16 per cent by Opta’s supercomputer with Newcastle’s at 76 per cent, Chelsea’s at 68 per cent and Forest’s at 43 per cent.

Who plays who in the final weeks?

The run-in sees two games between Champions League hopefuls as Chelsea go to Newcastle on May 11, before Forest host Chelsea on the final day of the season.

And on top of that, there is likely to be a SIXTH Premier League team in the Champions League next season, after Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United convincingly won their Europa League semi-final first legs.

Should Tottenham and Manchester United both reach the final in Bilbao, one of them will directly qualify for the Champions League, despite finishing in the bottom half of the table.