Labour’s electoral front frays as its historic support in Wales slumps

Good morning. Local elections are a test run for the various theses underpinning what the national parties think about the electorate. Because of the unusual composition of this set of local elections, these were inevitably a partial test. Some thoughts today on one party that had comparatively little in the way of winnable territory in the local elections, plus a stunning new poll of next year’s Welsh elections.

Greener on the other side?

One way that Downing Street’s strategy was validated last week is that they held on to Liberal Democrat votes in seats where Labour was the clear challenger to the incumbent. The Lib Dems — more on them later this week — did incredibly well in these elections, picking up more councils and councillors. But in many Labour-held wards the party still did as badly as they did during the dog days of the coalition. That Labour-Liberal Democrat combined front, which was so important to securing a landslide win in 2024, remains intact, for now: essentially all voters who are willing to tick a red box are willing to tick a yellow one, and vice versa.

However, Labour did very badly indeed in the places where they were directly challenged by the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, with the important exception of the West of England combined authority. When I visited Bristol, I was struck by the fact that, much like in Brighton, the Green council is not an asset, particularly in the city’s suburbs. But in most places where Labour is at risk from the Greens, there is no Green council to run against: there is just its own record nationally, and as it happens, Labour was frequently defeated by Green candidates. Yes, in places like Exeter, Labour got more votes across the city than any other party, but our first past the post system is about seats, not votes.

Next year’s local elections will have many more constituencies where Labour can’t use “there is a big scary Nigel coming to eat you” as a shield against the Greens, and it will also have devolved elections against Plaid Cymru and the SNP. A new poll for Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre and ITV Wales shows something truly unprecedented: a third-place finish for Labour in Wales, behind Plaid Cymru and Reform. Labour has finished first in every general election in Wales since 1922, and at every Senedd election. YouGov’s Dylan Difford, who is an incredibly worthwhile follow on Bluesky and on X, revealed on Bluesky that these numbers were echoed by YouGov’s regular tracker, too.

What is good news for Plaid Cymru in Wales is good news for the Greens in metropolitan England. And for anyone wondering what the government might do over the next few years, we should remember that Labour under Keir Starmer is yet to show the ability to stay cool following an electoral setback, and that if Labour loses large numbers of votes and seats to Plaid Cymru next year in Wales, to the SNP in Scotland and the Greens in England, hurried changes of approach such as we have seen on immigration already this month will probably follow.

Now try this

I saw Thunderbolts* at the cinema this weekend and found it throughly enjoyable. Jonathan Romney’s review is here.

Top stories today

• After three years . . . | Britain and India announced a “landmark” trade deal that included concessions to New Delhi on access to UK employment markets in return for big cuts to Indian tariffs on exports of whisky and cars.

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• Sticking points | The UK and the US are close to agreeing a trade pact that would cushion the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs by granting lower-tariff quotas for British car and steel exports, according to officials in London and Washington. One senior British official said negotiations were continuing “at speed”, while cautioning that disagreements remained over pharmaceuticals.

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• A jolt for industry | Ministers are drawing up plans to help shield British industry from sky-high energy costs in what is expected to be the centrepiece of Keir Starmer’s new industrial strategy.